Feasibility of novel adult tuberculosis vaccination in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis.

Early trials of novel vaccines against tuberculosis (TB) in adults have suggested substantial protection against TB. However, little is known about the feasibility and affordability of rolling out such vaccines in practice. We conducted expert interviews to identify plausible vaccination implementation strategies for the novel M72/AS01E vaccine candidate. The strategies were defined in terms of target population, coverage, vaccination schedule and delivery mode. We modelled these strategies to estimate long-term resource requirements and health benefits arising from vaccination over 2025-2050. We presented these to experts who excluded strategies that were deemed infeasible, and estimated cost-effectiveness and budget impact for each remaining strategy. The four strategies modelled combined target populations: either everyone aged 18-50, or all adults living with HIV, with delivery strategies: either a mass campaign followed by routine vaccination of 18-year olds, or two mass campaigns 10 years apart. Delivering two mass campaigns to all 18-50-year olds was found to be the most cost-effective strategy conferring the greatest net health benefit of 1.2 million DALYs averted having a probability of being cost-effective of 65-70%. This strategy required 38 million vaccine courses to be delivered at a cost of USD 507 million, reducing TB-related costs by USD 184 million while increasing ART costs by USD 79 million. A suitably designed adult TB vaccination programme built around novel TB vaccines is likely to be cost-effective and affordable given the resource and budget constraints in South Africa.

Inflammation and immune activation are associated with risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in BCG-vaccinated infants.

Tuberculosis vaccine development is hindered by the lack of validated immune correlates of protection. Exploring immune correlates of risk of disease and/or infection in prospective samples can inform this field. We investigate whether previously identified immune correlates of risk of TB disease also associate with increased risk of M.tb infection in BCG-vaccinated South African infants, who became infected with M.tb during 2-3 years of follow-up. M.tb infection is defined by conversion to positive reactivity in the QuantiFERON test. We demonstrate that inflammation and immune activation are associated with risk of M.tb infection. Ag85A-specific IgG is elevated in infants that were subsequently infected with M.tb, and this is coupled with upregulated gene expression of immunoglobulin-associated genes and type-I interferon. Plasma levels of IFN-[Formula: see text]2, TNF-[Formula: see text], CXCL10 (IP-10) and complement C2 are also higher in infants that were subsequently infected with M.tb.

Safety and immunogenicity of VPM1002 versus BCG in South African newborn babies: a randomised, phase 2 non-inferiority double-blind controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is a major public health problem worldwide. Immunisation with Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccine is partially effective in infants, reducing the incidence of miliary and tuberculosis meningitis, but is less effective against pulmonary tuberculosis. We aimed to compare safety and immunogenicity of VPM1002-a recombinant BCG vaccine developed to address this gap-with BCG in HIV exposed and HIV unexposed newborn babies. METHODS: This double-blind, randomised, active controlled phase 2 study was conducted at four health centres in South Africa. Eligible neonates were aged 12 days or younger with a birthweight of 2·5-4·2 kg, and could be HIV exposed (seropositive mothers) or unexposed (seronegative mothers). Newborn babies were excluded if they had acute or chronic illness, fever, hypothermia, sepsis, cancer, or congenital malformation, or if they received blood products or immunosuppressive therapy. Participants were excluded if their mothers (aged ≥18 years) had active tuberculosis disease, diabetes, a history of immunodeficiency except for HIV, hepatitis B or syphilis seropositivity, received blood products in the preceding 6 months, any acute infectious disease, or any suspected substance abuse. Participants were randomly assigned to VPM1002 or BCG vaccination in a 3:1 ratio, stratified by HIV status using the random number generator function in SAS, using a block size of eight paticipants. The primary outcome was non-inferiority (margin 15%) of VPM1002 to BCG vaccine in terms of incidence of grade 3-4 adverse drug reactions or ipsilateral or generalised lymphadenopathy of 10 mm or greater in diameter by 12 months. The primary outcome was assessed in all vaccinated participants (safety population) at regular follow-up visits until 12 months after vaccination. Secondary immunogenicity outcomes were interferon-γ levels and percentages of multifunctional CD4+ and CD8+ T cells among all lymphocytes across the 12 month study period. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02391415. FINDINGS: Between June 4, 2015 and Oct 16, 2017, 416 eligible newborn babies were randomly assigned and received study vaccine. Seven (2%) of 312 participants in the VPM1002 group had a grade 3-4 vaccine-related adverse reaction or lymphadenopathy of 10 mm or greater in diameter compared with 34 (33%) of 104 participants in the BCG group (risk difference -30·45% [95% CI -39·61% to -21·28%]; pnon-inferiority<0·0001); VPM1002 was thus non-inferior to BCG for the primary outcome. Incidence of severe injection site reactions was lower with VPM1002 than BCG: scarring occurred in 65 (21%) participants in the VPM1002 group versus 77 (74%) participants in the BCG group (p<0·0001); ulceration occurred in one (<1%) versus 15 (14%; p<0·0001); and abscess formation occurred in five (2%) versus 23 (22%; p<0·0001). Restimulated IFNγ concentrations were lower in the VPM1002 group than the BCG group at week 6, week 12, month 6, and month 12. The percentage of multifunctional CD4+ T cells was higher in the VPM1002 group than the BCG group at day 14 but lower at week 6, week 12, month 6, and month 12. The percentage of multifunctional CD8+ T cells was lower in the VPM1002 group than the BCG group at week 6, week 12, and month 6, but did not differ at other timepoints. INTERPRETATION: VPM1002 was less reactogenic than BCG and was not associated with any serious safety concern. Both vaccines were immunogenic, although responses were higher with the BCG vaccine. VPM1002 is currently being studied for efficacy and safety in a multicentric phase 3 clinical trial in babies in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: Serum Institute of India.

Evaluation of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk in combination with an interferon gamma release assay: A diagnostic test accuracy study.

Background: We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (TB) risk (RISK11) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold-plus (QFTPlus) as combination biomarkers of TB risk. Methods: Healthy South Africans who were HIV-negative aged 18-60 years with baseline RISK11 and QFTPlus results were evaluated in a prospective cohort study conducted between Sept 20, 2016 and Dec 20, 2019. Prevalence and incidence-rate ratios were used to evaluate risk of TB. Positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratios were used to compare individual tests versus Both-Positive (RISK11+/QFTPlus+) and Either-Positive (RISK11+ or QFTPlus+) combinations. Findings: Among 2912 participants, prevalent TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 13·3-fold (95% CI 4·2-42·7) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·4-fold (95% CI 1·2-4·8) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 4·5-fold (95% CI 2·5-8·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants. Risk of incident TB in RISK11+/QFTPlus+ participants was 8·3-fold (95% CI 2·5-27·0) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus-; 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·0-6·6) higher than RISK11+/QFTPlus-; and 2·1-fold (95% CI 1·2-3·4) higher than RISK11-/QFTPlus+ participants, respectively. Compared to QFTPlus, the Both-Positive test combination increased diagnostic LR+ from 1·3 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 4·7 (95% CI 3·2-7·0), and prognostic LR+ from 1·4 (95% CI 1·2-1·5) to 2·8 (95% CI 1·5-5·1), but did not improve upon RISK11 alone. Compared with RISK11, the Either-Positive test combination decreased diagnostic LR- from 0·7 (95% CI 0·6-0·9) to 0·3 (95% CI 0·2-0·6), and prognostic LR- from 0·9 (95% CI 0·8-1·0) to 0·3 (0·1-0·7), but did not improve upon QFTPlus alone. Interpretation: Combining two tests such as RISK11 and QFTPlus, with discordant individual performance characteristics does not improve overall discriminatory performance, relative to the individual tests. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Non-volatile organic compounds in exhaled breath particles correspond to active tuberculosis.

Human breath contains trace amounts of non-volatile organic compounds (NOCs) which might provide non-invasive methods for evaluating individual health. In previous work, we demonstrated that lipids detected in exhaled breath aerosol (EBA) could be used as markers of active tuberculosis (TB). Here, we advanced our analytical platform for characterizing small metabolites and lipids in EBA samples collected from participants enrolled in clinical trials designed to identify molecular signatures of active TB. EBA samples from 26 participants with active TB and 73 healthy participants were processed using a dual-phase extraction method, and metabolites and lipids were identified via mass spectrometry database matching. In total, 13 metabolite and 9 lipid markers were identified with statistically different optimized relative standard deviation values between individuals diagnosed with active TB and the healthy controls. Importantly, EBA lipid profiles can be used to separate the two sample types, indicating the diagnostic potential of the identified molecules. A feature ranking algorithm reduced this number to 10 molecules, with the membrane glycerophospholipid, phosphatidylinositol 24:4, emerging as the top driver of segregation between the two groups. These results support the use of this approach to identify consistent NOC signatures from EBA samples in active TB cases. This suggests the potential to apply this method to other human diseases which alter respiratory NOC release.

Immunogenicity and safety of a SARS-CoV-2 recombinant spike protein nanoparticle vaccine in people living with and without HIV-1 infection: a randomised, controlled, phase 2A/2B trial.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on COVID-19 vaccines in people living with HIV-1, who could be at increased risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19. We evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of a Matrix-M adjuvanted recombinant spike protein nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine (NVX-CoV2373; Novavax) in HIV-negative people and people living with HIV-1. METHODS: In this randomised, observer-blinded, multicentre, placebo-controlled phase 2A/B trial in South Africa, participants aged 18-84 years, with and without underlying HIV-1, were enrolled from 16 sites and randomly assigned (1:1) to receive two intramuscular injections of NVX-CoV2373 or placebo, 21 days apart. People living with HIV-1 were on stable antiretroviral therapy and had an HIV-1 viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. Vaccine dosage was 5 µg SARS-CoV-2 recombinant spike protein with 50 µg Matrix-M adjuvant, whereas 0·9% saline was used as placebo injection (volume 0·5 mL each). All study staff and participants remained masked to study group assignment. We previously reported an interim analysis on the efficacy and safety of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (coprimary endpoints). In this Article, we present an expanded safety analysis for the full cohort of participants and report on the secondary objective of vaccine immunogenicity in the full cohort of people living with HIV-1 and in HIV-negative individuals overall and stratified by baseline SARS-CoV-2 serostatus. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04533399, and the Pan-African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202009726132275. FINDINGS: Participants were enrolled between Aug 17 and Nov 25, 2020. The safety analysis set included 4164 HIV-negative participants (2089 in the intervention group and 2075 in the placebo group) and 244 people living with HIV-1 (122 in the intervention group and 122 in the placebo group). 1422 (34·1%) of 4164 HIV-negative people and 83 (34·0%) of 244 people living with HIV-1 were categorised as baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive (ie, anti-spike IgG reactive at enrolment or had a reactive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test by 14 days after the second study vaccination). In the NVX-CoV2373 group, solicited local and systemic adverse events were more common in HIV-negative participants (427 [30·6%] local and 401 [28·7%] systemic) than in people living with HIV-1 (20 [25·3%] local and 20 [25·3%] systemic) among those who were baseline SARS-CoV-2-seronegative (naive). Of the serious adverse events that occurred among HIV-negative people (of whom, two [0·1%] were baseline SARS-CoV-2-negative and four [0·6%] were baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive) and people living with HIV-1 (for whom there were no serious adverse events) in the NVX-CoV2373 group, none were assessed as related to the vaccine. Among participants who were baseline SARS-CoV-2-negative in the NVX-CoV2373 group, the anti-spike IgG geometric mean titres (GMTs) and seroconversion rates (SCRs) were lower in people living with HIV-1 (n=62) than in HIV-negative people (n=1234) following the first vaccination (GMT: 508·6 vs 1195·3 ELISA units [EU]/mL; SCR: 51·6% vs 81·3%); and similarly so 14 days after the second vaccination for GMTs (14 420·5 vs 31 631·8 EU/mL), whereas the SCR was similar at this point (100·0% vs 99·3%). In the NVX-CoV2373 group, anti-spike IgG GMTs 14 days after the second vaccination were substantially higher in those who were baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive than in those who were baseline SARS-CoV-2-seronegative for HIV-negative participants (100 666·1 vs 31 631·8 EU/mL) and for people living with HIV-1 (98 399·5 vs 14 420·5 EU/mL). This was also the case for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor-binding antibody and neutralising antibody titres. INTERPRETATION: The safety of the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine in people living with HIV-1 was similar to that in HIV-negative participants. However, people living with HIV-1 not previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2 had attenuated humoral immune responses to NVX-CoV2373 compared with their HIV-negative vaccine counterparts, but not so if they were baseline SARS-CoV-2-positive. FUNDING: Novavax and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; investigational vaccine manufacturing support was provided by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

Clinical predictors of pulmonary tuberculosis among South African adults with HIV.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) clinical prediction rules rely on presence of symptoms, however many undiagnosed cases in the community are asymptomatic. This study aimed to explore the utility of clinical factors in predicting TB among people with HIV not seeking care. Methods: Baseline data were analysed from an observational cohort of ambulant adults with HIV in South Africa. Participants were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) sensitisation (interferon-γ release assay, IGRA) and microbiologically-confirmed prevalent pulmonary TB disease at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident TB through 15 months. Multivariable LASSO regression with post-selection inference was used to test associations with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Findings: Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 861 participants were enrolled; Among 851 participants included in the analysis, 94·5% were asymptomatic and 45·9% sensitised to Mtb. TB prevalence was 2·0% at baseline and incidence 2·3/100 person-years through 15 months follow-up. Study site was associated with baseline Mtb sensitisation (p < 0·001), prevalent (p < 0·001), and incident TB disease (p = 0·037). Independent of site, higher CD4 counts (per 50 cells/mm3, aOR 1·48, 95%CI 1·12-1·77, p = 0·006) were associated with increased IGRA positivity, and participants without TB disease (aOR 0·80, 95%CI 0·69-0·94, p = 0·006) had reduced IGRA positivity; no variables were independently associated with prevalent TB. Mixed ancestry (aHR 1·49, 95%CI 1·30->1000, p = 0·005) and antiretroviral initiation (aHR 1·48, 95%CI 1·01-929·93, p = 0·023) were independently associated with incident TB. Models incorporating clinical features alone performed poorly in diagnosing prevalent (AUC 0·65, 95%CI 0·44-0·85) or predicting progression to incident (0·67, 0·46-0·88) TB. Interpretation: CD4 count and antiretroviral initiation, proxies for immune status and HIV stage, were associated with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Inadequate performance of clinical prediction models may reflect predominantly subclinical disease diagnosed in this setting and unmeasured local site factors affecting transmission and progression. Funding: The CORTIS-HR study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town.

Prospective multicentre head-to-head validation of host blood transcriptomic biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis by real-time PCR.

Background: Sensitive point-of-care screening tests are urgently needed to identify individuals at highest risk of tuberculosis. We prospectively tested performance of host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis signatures. Methods: Adults without suspicion of tuberculosis were recruited from five endemic South African communities. Eight parsimonious host-blood transcriptomic tuberculosis signatures were measured by microfluidic RT-qPCR at enrolment. Upper respiratory swab specimens were tested with a multiplex bacterial-viral RT-qPCR panel in a subset of participants. Diagnostic and prognostic performance for microbiologically confirmed prevalent and incident pulmonary tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline and during active surveillance through 15 months follow-up, respectively. Results: Among 20,207 HIV-uninfected and 963 HIV-infected adults screened; 2923 and 861 were enroled. There were 61 HIV-uninfected (weighted prevalence 1.1%) and 10 HIV-infected (prevalence 1.2%) tuberculosis cases at baseline. Parsimonious signature diagnostic performance was superior among symptomatic (AUCs 0.85-0.98) as compared to asymptomatic (AUCs 0.61-0.78) HIV-uninfected participants. Thereafter, 24 HIV-uninfected and 9 HIV-infected participants progressed to incident tuberculosis (1.1 and 1.0 per 100 person-years, respectively). Among HIV-uninfected individuals, prognostic performance for incident tuberculosis occurring within 6-12 months was higher relative to 15 months. 1000 HIV-uninfected participants were tested for respiratory microorganisms and 413 HIV-infected for HIV plasma viral load; 7/8 signature scores were higher (p < 0.05) in participants with viral respiratory infections or detectable HIV viraemia than those without. Conclusions: Several parsimonious tuberculosis transcriptomic signatures met triage test targets among symptomatic participants, and incipient test targets within 6 months. However, the signatures were upregulated with viral infection and offered poor specificity for diagnosing sub-clinical tuberculosis.

Longitudinal changes in COVID-19 vaccination intent among South African adults: evidence from the NIDS-CRAM panel survey, February to May 2021.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has threatened the ability of many countries worldwide to contain the pandemic. Given the severe impact of the pandemic in South Africa and disruptions to the roll-out of the vaccine in early 2021, slower-than-expected uptake is a pressing public health challenge in the country. We examined longitudinal changes in COVID-19 vaccination intent among South African adults, as well as determinants of intent to receive a vaccine. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from Wave 4 (February/March 2021) and Wave 5 (April/May 2021) of the National Income Dynamics Study: Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM), a national and broadly representative panel survey of adults in South Africa. We conducted cross-sectional analyses on aggregate and between-group variation in vaccination intent, examined individual-level changes between waves, and modeled demographic predictors of intent. RESULTS: We analysed data for 5629 (Wave 4; 48% male, mean age 41.5 years) and 5862 (Wave 5; 48% male, mean age 41.6 years) respondents. Willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine significantly increased from 70.8% (95% CI: 68.5-73.1) in Wave 4 to 76.1% (95% CI: 74.2-77.8) in Wave 5. Individual-level analyses indicated that only 6.6% of respondents remained strongly hesitant between survey waves. Although respondents aged 18-24 years were 8.5 percentage points more likely to report hesitancy, hesitant respondents in this group were 5.6 percentage points more likely to change their minds by Wave 5. Concerns about rushed testing and safety of the vaccines were frequent and strongly-held reasons for hesitancy. CONCLUSIONS: Willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine has increased among adults in South Africa, and those who were entrenched in their reluctance make up a small proportion of the country's population. Younger adults, those in formal housing, and those who trusted COVID-19 information on social media were more likely to be hesitant. Given that stated vaccination intent may not translate into behaviour, our finding that three-quarters of the population were willing to accept the vaccine may reflect an upper bound. Vaccination promotion campaigns should continue to frame vaccine acceptance as the norm and tailor strategies to different demographic groups.

The effect of host factors on discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to understand host factors that affect discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk (RISK11). METHODS: HIV-negative adults aged 18-60 years were evaluated in a prospective study of RISK11 and surveilled for tuberculosis through 15 months. Generalised linear models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) regression were used to estimate effect of host factors on RISK11 score (%marginal effect) and on discriminatory performance for tuberculosis disease (area under the curve, AUC), respectively. FINDINGS: Among 2923 participants including 74 prevalent and 56 incident tuberculosis cases, percentage marginal effects on RISK11 score were increased among those with prevalent tuberculosis (+18·90%, 95%CI 12·66-25·13), night sweats (+14·65%, 95%CI 5·39-23·91), incident tuberculosis (+7·29%, 95%CI 1·46-13·11), flu-like symptoms (+5·13%, 95%CI 1·58-8·68), and smoking history (+2·41%, 95%CI 0·89-3·93) than those without; and reduced in males (-6·68%, 95%CI -8·31- -5·04) and with every unit increase in BMI (-0·13%, 95%CI -0·25- -0·01). Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. Cough was associated with 72·55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from AUC = 0·74 (95%CI 0·67-0·82) overall, to 0·97 (95%CI 0·90-1·00, p < 0·001) in cough-positive participants. Combining host factors with RISK11 improved prognostic performance, compared to RISK11 alone, (AUC = 0·76, 95%CI 0·69-0·83 versus 0·56, 95%CI 0·46-0·68, p < 0·001) over a 15-month predictive horizon. INTERPRETATION: Several host factors affected RISK11 score, but only adjustment for cough affected diagnostic performance. Combining host factors with RISK11 should be considered to improve prognostic performance. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Potential implementation strategies, acceptability, and feasibility of new and repurposed TB vaccines.

Recently, two Phase 2B tuberculosis vaccine trials reported positive efficacy results in adolescents and adults. However, experience in vaccinating these age groups is limited. We identified potential implementation strategies for the M72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination-like candidates and explored their acceptability and feasibility. We conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews among key decision makers to identify implementation strategies and target groups in South Africa, India, and China. Thematic and deductive analysis using a coding framework were used to identify themes across and within settings. In all three countries there was interest in novel TB vaccines, with school-attending adolescents named as a likely target group. In China and India, older people were also identified as a target group. Routine vaccination was preferred in all countries due to stigma and logistical issues with targeted mass campaigns. Perceived benefits for implementation of M72/AS01E were the likely efficacy in individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and efficacy for people living with HIV. Perceived challenges for M72/AS01E included the infrastructure and the two-dose regimen required. Stakeholders valued the familiarity of BCG but were concerned about the adverse effects in people living with HIV, a particular concern in South Africa. Implementation challenges and opportunities were identified in all three countries. Our study provides crucial information for implementing novel TB vaccines in specific target groups and on country specific acceptability and feasibility. Key groups for vaccine implementation in these settings were identified, and should be included in clinical trials and implementation planning.

Molecular Detection of Airborne Mycobacterium tuberculosis in South African High Schools.

Rationale: South African adolescents carry a high tuberculosis disease burden. It is not known if schools are high-risk settings for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) transmission. Objectives: To detect airborne MTB genomic DNA in classrooms. Methods: We studied 72 classrooms occupied by 2,262 students in two South African schools. High-volume air filtration was performed for median 40 (interquartile range [IQR], 35-54) minutes and assayed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR)-targeting MTB region of difference 9 (RD9), with concurrent CO2 concentration measurement. Classroom data were benchmarked against public health clinics. Students who consented to individual tuberculosis screening completed a questionnaire and sputum collection (Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra) if symptom positive. Poisson statistics were used for MTB RD9 copy quantification. Measurements and Main Results: ddPCR assays were positive in 13/72 (18.1%) classrooms and 4/39 (10.3%) clinic measurements (P = 0.276). Median ambient CO2 concentration was 886 (IQR, 747-1223) ppm in classrooms versus 490 (IQR, 405-587) ppm in clinics (P < 0.001). Average airborne concentration of MTB RD9 was 3.61 copies per 180,000 liters in classrooms versus 1.74 copies per 180,000 liters in clinics (P = 0.280). Across all classrooms, the average risk of an occupant inhaling one MTB RD9 copy was estimated as 0.71% during one standard lesson of 35 minutes. Among 1,836/2,262 (81.2%) students who consented to screening, 21/90 (23.3%) symptomatic students produced a sputum sample, of which one was Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra positive. Conclusions: Airborne MTB genomic DNA was detected frequently in high school classrooms. Instantaneous risk of classroom exposure was similar to the risk in public health clinics.

Radiological and functional evidence of the bronchial spread of tuberculosis: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: Direct bronchial spread of tuberculosis was extensively described in pre-antibiotic human pathology literature but this description has been overlooked in the post-antibiotic era, in which most pathology data come from animal models that emphasise the granuloma. Modern techniques, such as [18F]2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) PET-CT scans, might provide further insight. Our aim was to understand normal early tuberculosis resolution patterns on pulmonary PET-CT scans in treated patients with tuberculosis who were subsequently cured. METHODS: In this observational analysis, we analysed data from PredictTB, an ongoing, prospective, randomised clinical trial that examined sequential baseline and week 4 FDG-PET-CT scans from participants successfully treated (sputum culture negative 18 months after enrolment) for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa and China. Participants who were aged 18-75 years, GeneXpert MTB/RIF positive for tuberculosis and negative for rifampicin resistance, had not yet started tuberculosis treatment, had not been treated for active tuberculosis within the previous 3 years, and met basic safety laboratory criteria were included and participants with diabetes, HIV infection, or with extrapulmonary tuberculosis including pleural tuberculosis were excluded. Scans were assessed by two readers for the location of tuberculosis lesions (eg, cavities and consolidations), bronchial thickening patterns, and changes from baseline to week 4 of treatment. FINDINGS: Among the first 124 participants (enrolled from June 22, 2017, to Sept 27, 2018) who were successfully treated, 161 primarily apical cavitary lesions were identified at baseline. Bronchial thickening and inflammation linking non-cavitary consolidative lesions to cavities were observed in 121 (98%) of 124 participants' baseline PET-CT scans. After 4 weeks of treatment, 21 (17%) of 124 participants had new or expanding lesions linked to cavities via bronchial inflammation that were not present at baseline, particularly participants with two or more cavities at baseline and participants from South Africa. INTERPRETATION: In participants with pulmonary tuberculosis who were subsequently cured, the location of cavitary and non-cavitary lesions at baseline and new lesions at week 4 of treatment suggest a cavitary origin of disease and bronchial spread through the lungs. Bronchial spread from cavities might play a larger role in the spread of pulmonary tuberculosis than has been appreciated. Elucidating cavity lesion dynamics and Mycobacterium tuberculosis viability within cavities might better explain treatment outcomes and why some patients are cured and others relapse. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, China Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese, Afrikaans and Xhosa translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Longitudinal Dynamics of a Blood Transcriptomic Signature of Tuberculosis.

Rationale: Performance of blood transcriptomic tuberculosis (TB) signatures in longitudinal studies and effects of TB-preventive therapy and coinfection with HIV or respiratory organisms on transcriptomic signatures has not been systematically studied. Objectives: We evaluated longitudinal kinetics of an 11-gene blood transcriptomic TB signature, RISK11, and effects of TB-preventive therapy (TPT) and respiratory organisms on RISK11 signature score, in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals. Methods: RISK11 was measured in a longitudinal study of RISK11-guided TPT in HIV-uninfected adults, a cross-sectional respiratory organisms cohort, or a longitudinal study in people living with HIV (PLHIV). HIV-uninfected RISK11+ participants were randomized to TPT or no TPT; RISK11- participants received no TPT. PLHIV received standard-of-care antiretroviral therapy and TPT. In the cross-sectional respiratory organisms cohort, viruses and bacteria in nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were quantified by real-time quantitative PCR. Measurements and Main Results: RISK11+ status was transient in most of the 128 HIV-negative participants with longitudinal samples; more than 70% of RISK11+ participants reverted to RISK11- by 3 months, irrespective of TPT. By comparison, reversion from a RISK11+ state was less common in 645 PLHIV (42.1%). Non-HIV viral and nontuberculous bacterial organisms were detected in 7.2% and 38.9% of the 1,000 respiratory organisms cohort participants, respectively, and among those investigated for TB, 3.8% had prevalent disease. Median RISK11 scores (%) were higher in participants with viral organisms alone (46.7%), viral and bacterial organisms (42.8%), or prevalent TB (85.7%) than those with bacterial organisms other than TB (13.4%) or no organisms (14.2%). RISK11 could not discriminate between prevalent TB and viral organisms. Conclusions: Positive RISK11 signature status is often transient, possibly due to intercurrent viral infection, highlighting potentially important challenges for implementation of these biomarkers as new tools for TB control.

Efficacy of NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants threatens progress toward control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. In a phase 1-2 trial involving healthy adults, the NVX-CoV2373 nanoparticle vaccine had an acceptable safety profile and was associated with strong neutralizing-antibody and antigen-specific polyfunctional CD4+ T-cell responses. Evaluation of vaccine efficacy was needed in a setting of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: In this phase 2a-b trial in South Africa, we randomly assigned human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative adults between the ages of 18 and 84 years or medically stable HIV-positive participants between the ages of 18 and 64 years in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of either the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (5 µg of recombinant spike protein with 50 µg of Matrix-M1 adjuvant) or placebo. The primary end points were safety and vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic Covid-19 at 7 days or more after the second dose among participants without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: Of 6324 participants who underwent screening, 4387 received at least one injection of vaccine or placebo. Approximately 30% of the participants were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline. Among 2684 baseline seronegative participants (94% HIV-negative and 6% HIV-positive), predominantly mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 15 participants in the vaccine group and in 29 in the placebo group (vaccine efficacy, 49.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.1 to 72.8). Vaccine efficacy among HIV-negative participants was 60.1% (95% CI, 19.9 to 80.1). Of 41 sequenced isolates, 38 (92.7%) were the B.1.351 variant. Post hoc vaccine efficacy against B.1.351 was 51.0% (95% CI, -0.6 to 76.2) among the HIV-negative participants. Preliminary local and systemic reactogenicity events were more common in the vaccine group; serious adverse events were rare in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The NVX-CoV2373 vaccine was efficacious in preventing Covid-19, with higher vaccine efficacy observed among HIV-negative participants. Most infections were caused by the B.1.351 variant. (Funded by Novavax and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04533399.).

Validation of a host blood transcriptomic biomarker for pulmonary tuberculosis in people living with HIV: a prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: A rapid, blood-based triage test that allows targeted investigation for tuberculosis at the point of care could shorten the time to tuberculosis treatment and reduce mortality. We aimed to test the performance of a host blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) in diagnosing tuberculosis and predicting progression to active pulmonary disease (prognosis) in people with HIV in a community setting. METHODS: In this prospective diagnostic and prognostic accuracy study, adults (aged 18-59 years) with HIV were recruited from five communities in South Africa. Individuals with a history of tuberculosis or household exposure to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis within the past 3 years, comorbid risk factors for tuberculosis, or any condition that would interfere with the study were excluded. RISK11 status was assessed at baseline by real-time PCR; participants and study staff were masked to the result. Participants underwent active surveillance for microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis by providing spontaneously expectorated sputum samples at baseline, if symptomatic during 15 months of follow-up, and at 15 months (the end of the study). The coprimary outcomes were the prevalence and cumulative incidence of tuberculosis disease confirmed by a positive Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert Ultra, or Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture, or a combination of such, on at least two separate sputum samples collected within any 30-day period. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 963 participants were assessed for eligibility and 861 were enrolled. Among 820 participants with valid RISK11 results, eight (1%) had prevalent tuberculosis at baseline: seven (2·5%; 95% CI 1·2-5·0) of 285 RISK11-positive participants and one (0·2%; 0·0-1·1) of 535 RISK11-negative participants. The relative risk (RR) of prevalent tuberculosis was 13·1 times (95% CI 2·1-81·6) greater in RISK11-positive participants than in RISK11-negative participants. RISK11 had a diagnostic area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 88·2% (95% CI 77·6-96·7), and a sensitivity of 87·5% (58·3-100·0) and specificity of 65·8% (62·5-69·0) at a predefined score threshold (60%). Of those with RISK11 results, eight had primary endpoint incident tuberculosis during 15 months of follow-up. Tuberculosis incidence was 2·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·7-4·4) in the RISK11-positive group and 0·2 per 100 person-years (0·0-0·5) in the RISK11-negative group. The probability of primary endpoint incident tuberculosis was greater in the RISK11-positive group than in the RISK11-negative group (cumulative incidence ratio 16·0 [95% CI 2·0-129·5]). RISK11 had a prognostic AUC of 80·0% (95% CI 70·6-86·9), and a sensitivity of 88·6% (43·5-98·7) and a specificity of 68·9% (65·3-72·3) for incident tuberculosis at the 60% threshold. INTERPRETATION: RISK11 identified prevalent tuberculosis and predicted risk of progression to incident tuberculosis within 15 months in ambulant people living with HIV. RISK11's performance approached, but did not meet, WHO's target product profile benchmarks for screening and prognostic tests for tuberculosis. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council.

Biomarker-guided tuberculosis preventive therapy (CORTIS): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Targeted preventive therapy for individuals at highest risk of incident tuberculosis might impact the epidemic by interrupting transmission. We tested performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis (RISK11) and efficacy of signature-guided preventive therapy in parallel, using a hybrid three-group study design. METHODS: Adult volunteers aged 18-59 years were recruited at five geographically distinct communities in South Africa. Whole blood was sampled for RISK11 by quantitative RT-PCR assay from eligible volunteers without HIV, recent previous tuberculosis (ie, <3 years before screening), or comorbidities at screening. RISK11-positive participants were block randomised (1:2; block size 15) to once-weekly, directly-observed, open-label isoniazid and rifapentine for 12 weeks (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP positive), or no treatment (ie, RISK11 positive and 3HP negative). A subset of eligible RISK11-negative volunteers were randomly assigned to no treatment (ie, RISK11 negative and 3HP negative). Diagnostic discrimination of prevalent tuberculosis was tested in all participants at baseline. Thereafter, prognostic discrimination of incident tuberculosis was tested in the untreated RISK11-positive versus RISK11-negative groups, and treatment efficacy in the 3HP-treated versus untreated RISK11-positive groups, during active surveillance through 15 months. The primary endpoint was microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. The primary outcome measures were risk ratio [RR] for tuberculosis of RISK11-positive to RISK11-negative participants, and treatment efficacy. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02735590. FINDINGS: 20 207 volunteers were screened, and 2923 participants were enrolled, including RISK11-positive participants randomly assigned to 3HP (n=375) or no 3HP (n=764), and 1784 RISK11-negative participants. Cumulative probability of prevalent or incident tuberculosis disease was 0·066 (95% CI 0·049 to 0·084) in RISK11-positive (3HP negative) participants and 0·018 (0·011 to 0·025) in RISK11-negative participants (RR 3·69, 95% CI 2·25-6·05) over 15 months. Tuberculosis prevalence was 47 (4·1%) of 1139 versus 14 (0·78%) of 1984 in RISK11-positive compared with RISK11-negative participants, respectively (diagnostic RR 5·13, 95% CI 2·93 to 9·43). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) vs 0·80 (0·30 to 1·30) per 100 person years in RISK11-positive (3HP-negative) participants compared with RISK11-negative participants (cumulative incidence ratio 2·6, 95% CI 1·2 to 5·9). Serious adverse events related to 3HP included one hospitalisation for seizures (unintentional isoniazid overdose) and one death of unknown cause (possibly temporally related). Tuberculosis incidence over 15 months was 1·94 (95% CI 0·35 to 3·50) versus 2·09 (95% CI 0·97 to 3·19) per 100 person-years in 3HP-treated RISK11-positive participants compared with untreated RISK11-positive participants (efficacy 7·0%, 95% CI -145 to 65). INTERPRETATION: The RISK11 signature discriminated between individuals with prevalent tuberculosis, or progression to incident tuberculosis, and individuals who remained healthy, but provision of 3HP to signature-positive individuals after exclusion of baseline disease did not reduce progression to tuberculosis over 15 months. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Immune Profiling Enables Stratification of Patients With Active Tuberculosis Disease or Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and is a major public health problem. Clinical challenges include the lack of a blood-based test for active disease. Current blood-based tests, such as QuantiFERON (QFT) do not distinguish active TB disease from asymptomatic Mtb infection. METHODS: We hypothesized that TruCulture, an immunomonitoring method for whole-blood stimulation, could discriminate active disease from latent Mtb infection (LTBI). We stimulated whole blood from patients with active TB and compared with LTBI donors. Mtb-specific antigens and live bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) were used as stimuli, with direct comparison to QFT. Protein analyses were performed using conventional and digital enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), as well as Luminex. RESULTS: TruCulture showed discrimination of active TB cases from LTBI (P < .0001, AUC = .81) compared with QFT (P = .45, AUC = .56), based on an interferon γ (IFNγ) readout after Mtb antigen (Ag) stimulation. This result was replicated in an independent cohort (AUC = .89). In exploratory analyses, TB stratification could be further improved by the Mtb antigen to BCG IFNγ ratio (P < .0001, AUC = .91). Finally, the combination of digital ELISA and transcriptional analysis showed that LTBI donors with high IFNγ clustered with patients with TB, suggesting the possibility to identify subclinical disease. CONCLUSIONS: TruCulture offers a next-generation solution for whole-blood stimulation and immunomonitoring with the possibility to discriminate active and latent infection.

Safety and immunogenicity of the adjunct therapeutic vaccine ID93 + GLA-SE in adults who have completed treatment for tuberculosis: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2a trial.

BACKGROUND: A therapeutic vaccine that prevents recurrent tuberculosis would be a major advance in the development of shorter treatment regimens. We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of the ID93 + GLA-SE vaccine at various doses and injection schedules in patients with previously treated tuberculosis. METHODS: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2a trial was conducted at three clinical sites near Cape Town, South Africa. Patients were recruited at local clinics after receiving 4 months of tuberculosis treatment, and screened for eligibility after providing written informed consent. Participants were aged 18-60 years, BCG-vaccinated, HIV-uninfected, and diagnosed with drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis. Eligible patients had completed standard treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis in the past 28 days. Participants were enrolled after completing standard treatment and randomly assigned sequentially to receive vaccine or placebo in three cohorts: 2 µg intramuscular ID93 + 2 µg GLA-SE on days 0 and 56 (cohort 1); 10 µg ID93 + 2 µg GLA-SE on days 0 and 56 (cohort 2); 2 µg ID93 + 5 µg GLA-SE on days 0 and 56 and placebo on day 28 (cohort 3); 2 µg ID93 + 5 µg GLA-SE on days 0, 28, and 56 (cohort 3); or placebo on days 0 and 56 (cohorts 1 and 2), with the placebo group for cohort 3 receiving an additional injection on day 28. Randomisation was in a ratio of 3:1 for ID93 + GLA-SE and saline placebo in cohorts 1 and 2, and in a ratio of 3:3:1 for (2 ×) ID93 + GLA-SE, (3 ×) ID93 + GLA-SE, and placebo in cohort 3. The primary outcomes were safety and immunogenicity (vaccine-specific antibody response and T-cell response). For the safety outcome, participants were observed for 30 min after each injection, injection site reactions and systemic adverse events were monitored until day 84, and serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest were monitored for 6 months after the last injection. Vaccine-specific antibody responses were measured by serum ELISA, and T-cell responses after stimulation with vaccine antigens were measured in cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells specimens using intracellular cytokine staining followed by flow cytometry. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465216. FINDINGS: Between June 17, 2015, and May 30, 2016, we assessed 177 patients for inclusion. 61 eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive: saline placebo (n=5) or (2 ×) 2 µg ID93 + 2 µg GLA-SE (n=15) on days 0 and 56 (cohort 1); saline placebo (n=2) or (2 ×) 10 µg ID93 + 2 µg GLA-SE (n=5) on days 0 and 56 (cohort 2); saline placebo (n=5) on days 0, 28 and 56, or 2 µg ID93 + 5 µg GLA-SE (n=15) on days 0 and 56 and placebo injection on day 28, or (3 ×) 2 µg ID93 + 5 µg GLA-SE (n=14) on days 0, 28, and 56 (cohort 3). ID93 + GLA-SE induced robust and durable antibody responses and specific, polyfunctional CD4 T-cell responses to vaccine antigens. Two injections of the 2 µg ID93 + 5 µg GLA-SE dose induced antigen-specific IgG and CD4 T-cell responses that were significantly higher than those with placebo and persisted for the 6-month study duration. Mild to moderate injection site pain was reported after vaccination across all dose combinations, and induration and erythema in patients given 2 µg ID93 + 5 µg GLA-SE in two or three doses. One participant had grade 3 erythema and induration at the injection site. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were observed. INTERPRETATION: Vaccination with ID93 + GLA-SE was safe and immunogenic for all tested regimens. These data support further evaluation of ID93 + GLA-SE in therapeutic vaccination strategies to improve tuberculosis treatment outcomes. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (102028/Z/13/Z).

Regional changes in tuberculosis disease burden among adolescents in South Africa (2005-2015).

BACKGROUND: Adolescents in the Western Cape Province of South Africa had high force of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection (14% per annum) and high TB incidence (710 per 100,000 person-years) in 2005. We describe subsequent temporal changes in adolescent TB disease notification rates for the decade 2005-2015. METHOD: We conducted an analysis of patient-level adolescent (age 10-19 years) TB disease data, obtained from an electronic TB register in the Breede Valley sub-district, Western Cape Province, South Africa, for 2005-2015. Numerators were annual TB notifications (HIV-related and HIV-unrelated); denominators were mid-year population estimates. Period averages of TB rates were obtained using time series modeling. Temporal trends in TB rates were explored using the Mann-Kendall test. FINDINGS: The average adolescent TB disease notification rate was 477 per 100,000 for all TB patients (all-TB) and 361 per 100,000 for microbiologically-confirmed patients. The adolescent all-TB rate declined by 45% from 662 to 361 per 100,000 and the microbiologically-confirmed TB rate by 38% from 492 to 305 per 100,000 between 2005-2015, driven mainly by rapid decreases for the period 2005-2009. There was a statistically significant negative temporal trend in both all-TB (per 100,000) (declined by 48%; from 662 to 343; p = 0·028) and microbiologically confirmed TB (per 100,000) (declined by 49%; from 492 to 252; p = 0·027) for 2005-2009, which was not observed for the period 2009-2015 (rose 5%; from 343 to 361; p = 0·764 and rose 21%; from 252 to 305; p = 1·000, respectively). INTERPRETATION: We observed an encouraging fall in adolescent TB disease rates between 2005-2009 with a subsequent plateau during 2010-2015, suggesting that additional interventions are needed to sustain initial advances in TB control.